Value vs Risk: A Product Prioritization Framework

Post 1: RICE
Post 2: Buy a Feature
Post 3: Value vs Risk

This is one of the quickest prioritization frameworks one can use when starting a new project with a new internal team or for working with clients.

The goal from this approach is to very quickly map across only two priorities value & risk.

Step 1: Draw a simple graph

The traditional approach for this prioritization framework is to draw a 2×2 square matrix of value vs risk. You can see the traditional approach here or in the book that originated this approach: Agile Estimating and Planning.

Instead I prefer to draw a two line graph.

simple risk vs value graph

It’s important to come up with common definitions of value & risk during this exercise. One of the most important skills in facilitating production prioritization meetings is making sure everyone is speaking the same language.

Potential Value Drivers

Let’s evaluate some potential value drivers:

  • Increased Logos (sales to important customers)
  • Increased One-Time Revenue
  • Increased Recurring Revenue
  • Increased Customer Satisfaction
  • Increased Speed
  • Increased Development Speed
  • Infrastructural
  • Decreased Costs
  • Decreased Reliance Upon External Firms
  • Decreased Reliance 
  • Decreased Churn

The thing about potential value drivers is that are not all equally weighted AND they are extremely situationally specific. If you can driver more recurring revenue – that would normally trump one-time revenue UNLESS you are currently cash-starved. Determine your value drivers and very roughly rank them according to you particular needs as a guiding mechanism for the next step.

Potential Risk Drivers

There are numerous potential risk drivers:

  • Delivery Timing
  • Capability 
  • Cost
  • Coordination
  • Technical Debt
  • Infrastructural
  • Dependencies

These will be potentially harder to roughly rank because the magnitude will be critically important.

Step 2: Put ideas on sticky notes and plop them on the graph

During this phase you have to put ideas on sticky notes: 🤯 (pretty common theme in prioritizing ideas).

The important now – is giving all those ideas to the facilitator and having a communal discussion about the value vs risk of the idea and negotiating where to place them on the graph.

place sticky notes on the graph

Step 3: Map out the graph by zones

In this step we show how those cards should be prioritized based upon their positioning on the map. 

In this approach there will be some negotiating on specific order, but the rough order of magnitude can be determined extremely quickly.

Pros & Cons of the Value vs Risk-Based Approach to Product Prioritization

A method as simple as this is going to have its trade-offs. I still believe it is worth using.

Pros of the Value vs Risk Approach

The best things about this technique is that it is:

  • Extremely easy
  • Fast
  • Grokable

Cons of the Value vs Risk Approach

The worst things about this technique is that it is:

  • Less scientific than other methods
  • Doesn’t account for dependencies
  • Doesn’t account for synchronicity of theme-based development
  • Doesn’t align to themed/scoped deliverables

One way to mitigate the cons of this technique is to first determine the themes and use this matrix for each theme instead of for the whole product.

Value vs Risk Summarized 

You can use this single image to explain the value-vs-risk product prioritization method. It is extremely simple technique to get started especially with external/client teams.

value vs risk prioritization framework